What to Watch in Tuesday’s Primary Elections in Iowa, Montana and Beyond

Iowa will hold closely watched primary elections on Tuesday in two open-seat races for Senate and governor, with Democrats and Republicans both trying to position themselves for a competitive November. The contests are being shaped by retiring GOP incumbents — Sen. Joni Ernst and Gov. Kim Reynolds — and by voter frustration over President Trump’s tariff policies, which have hurt Iowa’s farm economy. The Senate primary has become the state’s biggest political battleground, while the governor’s race has turned into a bitter Republican contest that may have been settled only after Trump’s late endorsement on Friday.
In the Iowa Senate race, Democrats are divided between two contrasting candidates: state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian from conservative western Iowa, and state Sen. Zach Wahls, who is running as a more outspoken progressive from Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. Turek argues that his victories in a Trump-won district show he can appeal to voters in a state that has backed Trump three times. Wahls is leaning into anger at both Trump and Democratic establishment figures. The race has also become a measure of Chuck Schumer’s influence, with a Schumer-aligned veterans group spending heavily to boost Turek. The winner is expected to face Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is strongly favored to win her own primary.
The Republican governor’s primary has its own internal drama. Randy Feenstra, a member of Congress and the early establishment favorite, has faced a challenge from Zach Lahn, a first-time candidate and farmer who has drawn support from former Rep. Steve King. Lahn has recently out-raised Feenstra and forced the race onto television. But Trump’s endorsement of Feenstra on Friday could prove decisive. If no candidate clears 35 percent, the nomination would go to a June party convention, a potentially chaotic outcome for Republicans. The eventual nominee will likely face Democratic state auditor Rob Sand in the general election.
Outside Iowa, Democrats in western Montana are choosing a nominee for an open House seat after Rep. Ryan Zinke’s retirement. The race includes Ryan Busse, the party’s 2024 gubernatorial nominee, and Sam Forstag, a smokejumper who has won support from progressives including Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Democrats see the district as competitive because of Trump’s weak approval and Zinke’s departure. On the Republican side, Trump has endorsed local radio host Aaron Flint.
In New Mexico, former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor and remains the favorite over Sam Bregman, the district attorney for Bernalillo County. The Democratic winner will be heavily favored in the general election in a state that has trended blue. Three Republicans are competing for their nomination.
In New Jersey, Democrats are picking nominees in two House districts. In the Seventh District, four candidates are vying to challenge Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., who has not been publicly seen for months. Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, has raised the most money and leads in polling. In the Twelfth District, a crowded field of 12 Democrats is competing to replace retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman. Progressive surgeon Adam Hamawy has the backing of Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, but the fragmented race could be decided by a relatively small share of the vote.





