Mexico’s aviation sector is expected to benefit from a significant rise in passenger traffic tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Grupo Financiero Monex projecting growth of 4% to 6% during the tournament period and estimating the event could generate between US$1.8 billion and US$3 billion in nationwide economic impact. The tournament will be held from June 11 to July 19 across North America, with Mexico set to host 13 matches in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey.
Monex said airport operators Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte are likely to see stronger international and domestic passenger flows as fans, teams, media and business delegations move through the country. The firm described the World Cup as a “positive demand shock” that could create both immediate and longer-term benefits for Mexico’s aviation and tourism sectors.
According to the report, passenger traffic growth in Mexico is expected to be lower than in Russia in 2018 and Qatar in 2022, when host-country aviation demand rose between 8% and 15%. Monex senior analyst Brian Rodríguez Ontiveros said the impact in Mexico will be more moderate because the United States is the primary host nation for the 2026 tournament.
Monex forecasts 2026 passenger growth of 3.9% for ASUR, 2.3% for GAP and 7.3% for OMA, with the World Cup identified as the main driver of those projections. The analysts also estimate average tourism growth of 4% to 5% across airport groups during the tournament cycle, with demand expected to come from direct international arrivals, connecting traffic from North America and higher domestic travel within Mexico.
The firm said airport infrastructure investments completed ahead of the event should allow operators to handle more passengers without requiring major additional capital spending. It expects Mexico’s airport sector to post a compound annual growth rate of about 4.5% between 2026 and 2029, while total passenger traffic across the country’s airport system could rise by as much as 25% by 2029.
Mexico City International Airport is also expected to benefit from increased airline seat availability after carriers recovered aircraft previously affected by maintenance and supply chain delays. However, Monex did not provide a specific passenger forecast for the airport, citing differences in how data is disclosed by the Mexican Navy, which manages operations there.
Tourism authorities estimate the World Cup could attract about 5.5 million additional visitors and create roughly 24,000 direct jobs in hospitality, transportation and related industries. Deloitte separately estimated the tournament could generate about US$2.73 billion in economic impact, equal to around 0.14% of Mexico’s GDP.
Airlines are preparing for higher demand while facing rising costs from fuel, leasing and maintenance. Monex forecasts passenger growth in 2026 of 4.4% for Aeroméxico, 6.9% for Volaris and 6.1% for Viva, with low-cost carriers expected to capture domestic demand and Aeroméxico likely to benefit from international and corporate travel linked to the event.
