Electoral polls: how the Lula vs. Flávio race stands after Real Time Big Data numbers

A new Real Time Big Data poll released on Monday, June 1, 2026, reinforces a presidential race narrative that has been consolidating in recent weeks: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 election after political damage caused by the Banco Master scandal and leaked audio involving the senator and former banker Daniel Vorcaro. The poll suggests that, for now, the dispute remains centered on the familiar polarization between Lula and the Bolsonaro camp, while other right-wing names continue to lag far behind.

In the main stimulated first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38% of voter intention, compared with 31% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The two remain well ahead of the other tested candidates, showing that the race is still dominated by the two biggest political brands in the country.

In a simulated second-round matchup, Lula widens his advantage slightly and reaches 45%, while Flávio Bolsonaro gets 40%. Compared with the previous Real Time Big Data survey, Lula gained two points and Flávio lost four, signaling a clear shift in momentum toward the incumbent president.

The survey interviewed 2,000 voters on May 29 and 30. It has a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.

Beyond the top two names, the poll shows a fragmented and weak field on the right. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado are tied at 6% in one scenario, while Romeu Zema appears with 4%. Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa register 3% each. In another scenario that replaces Barbosa with Aldo Rebelo, the results for Lula and Flávio remain unchanged at 38% and 31%, respectively.

The survey also tested second-round scenarios between Lula and several other potential challengers. Against Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, Lula would be in a tighter race and could even tie, according to the poll. Against Renan Santos and Aécio Neves, however, the president would win comfortably. Lula posts 46% against Renan Santos’ 30%, and 47% against Aécio Neves’ 23%.

The Banco Master scandal appears to be weighing on Flávio Bolsonaro across recent polls. Surveys released after the audio leak have shown Lula expanding his lead and Flávio suffering a drop in support. Other polling firms, including AtlasIntel, Datafolha, BTG Nexus and Meio/Ideia, have also pointed to higher rejection rates for Flávio and a rise in undecided, blank and null votes.

Even so, the broader picture remains one of persistent polarization. The data indicates that neither Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos nor other conservative names have yet managed to break the Lula-versus-Bolsonaro dynamic. For now, Flávio Bolsonaro remains the strongest opposition contender, but the latest numbers suggest Lula has regained room to grow as the 2026 race begins to take shape.