Spain are the Opta supercomputer’s favourite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but their path through Group H is far from simple. The reigning European champions are grouped with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and debutants Cape Verde, and their tournament opens against Cape Verde on 15 June. In 10,000 pre-tournament simulations, Spain lifted the trophy 16.2% of the time, the highest title probability of any team. They also have a 98.5% chance of reaching the knockout stage and a 75.6% chance of winning Group H.
Spain arrive in strong form after winning Euro 2024 and extending their unbeaten run in competitive matches to 31, the longest in their history in non-friendlies. That said, their World Cup record has been inconsistent since their 2010 triumph. Since then, Spain have failed to reach the semi-finals in 14 consecutive participations, exiting in the group stage in 2014 and in the round of 16 in both 2018 and 2022. If they win the World Cup this summer, Spain would join West Germany, France and themselves as nations to have held the European Championship and World Cup titles at the same time.
There are, however, selection concerns for coach Luis de la Fuente. Spain’s squad does not include a single Real Madrid player, the first time the country has gone to a World Cup without representation from the club. Fitness is also an issue for key players, including Lamine Yamal, who missed the end of Barcelona’s season after tearing his left hamstring on 22 April, while Nico Williams and Mikel Merino are also doubts.
Uruguay are predicted to be Spain’s biggest challenge in Group H. Marcelo Bielsa’s side reached the knockout rounds in 84.3% of simulations and finished top of the group in 18.9%. Uruguay are two-time world champions, but their best World Cup finish since 1950 remains fourth place in 2010. Bielsa, in his third World Cup as a head coach with a third different nation, will hope his high-pressing team can trouble stronger opponents; Uruguay led CONMEBOL qualifying with 147 high turnovers, far more than any other side.
Saudi Arabia have a 39.9% chance of advancing. Their World Cup history has been modest, with progression from the first round in just one of six previous appearances, though that came at USA 1994, when they reached the round of 16. Their overall record is poor, with 13 defeats in 19 World Cup matches. Still, they remain capable of producing shocks, as shown by their famous 2-1 win over Argentina in 2022.
Cape Verde, making their World Cup debut, are the outsiders but not without hope. The supercomputer gives them a 32.9% chance of reaching the knockout stage, and if they do so, they would become the first African debutants since Ghana in 2006 to progress from their group. Cape Verde booked their place in the finals by winning six of their last seven qualifying matches, including a group ahead of Cameroon.
