Democrats have long struggled to win statewide office in Texas, with no statewide victory since 1994 and no Senate win since 1988. But in 2026, the party has its best opening in years as Republicans move toward a general election matchup between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, a candidate described as politically damaged after years of controversy and a hard-fought primary battle.
The article argues that Paxton is the kind of nominee Democrats have wanted for a long time: a prominent Republican with significant baggage who may struggle to unify the GOP base and appeal to independents. Paxton’s win over Sen. John Cornyn, backed late by President Donald Trump, created what some Republicans see as a potentially dangerous general election. Sen. Ted Cruz warned GOP voters not to treat Texas as automatically safe.
Talarico, meanwhile, is viewed by Democrats as a promising candidate because of his ability to speak openly about his Christian faith and potentially connect with religious and culturally conservative voters. At the same time, his past comments on social issues could create vulnerabilities with those same voters. Republicans are expected to use statements he made about topics such as biological sex, religion, and the American flag to paint him as too liberal for Texas.
Still, the broader political environment appears favorable to Democrats. National polling trends show Democrats gaining ground on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump’s approval has weakened. The article says this kind of environment could be even better for Democrats than in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of defeating Cruz. Latino voters, who had recently been moving toward Republicans, also appear to be drifting back toward Democrats, which could matter in Texas.
Early polling in the Senate race has shown unusual signs of competitiveness for Democrats. One University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found Talarico leading Paxton 42%-34% among registered voters, while another Texas Southern University/YouGov poll showed the two tied at 45%-45%. In both surveys, Paxton trailed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by a wide margin, suggesting he may be underperforming the rest of his party. The article notes that these are the kinds of numbers rarely seen in Texas Senate races.
The polling also points to strong independent support for Talarico and significantly better favorability ratings than Paxton. Talarico’s image is net positive, while Paxton’s is net negative. Yet Republicans have reasons to believe the race remains highly winnable. They argue the numbers may still reflect the lingering impact of a bruising primary, and undecided voters could eventually swing back toward the GOP. Historical voting patterns also suggest Senate races often become more partisan than gubernatorial contests, meaning some conservative voters may back Paxton despite misgivings to block a Democratic Senate majority.
The piece concludes that Texas is not yet a safe Democratic pickup, but it has clearly become a serious battleground and an important part of the Senate control picture.
