Rays vs. Orioles Odds, Prediction and Line: 2026 MLB Picks for May 25 from Proven Model
The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Baltimore on Memorial Day to open a three-game series against the Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Tampa Bay enters the matchup with momentum, carrying a five-game winning streak and the best record in the AL East at 34-16. The Rays have also been solid on the road, going 15-11 away from home. Baltimore comes in at 23-30, sitting fourth in the division, and is looking to bounce back after a loss to the Detroit Tigers.
Monday’s game features a pitching matchup between two right-handers with contrasting seasons. The Rays are expected to start Shane McClanahan, who is 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 47 strikeouts. Baltimore will counter with Kyle Bradish, who is 2-6 with a 4.13 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 58 strikeouts. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET.
The betting market lists Tampa Bay as a slight favorite at -119 on the money line, while Baltimore is priced at -104. The run total is set at 7.5, and the Rays are +142 on the run line at -1.5. The matchup is expected to be competitive, with little separating the teams in the money line odds.
A projection model that has been running 10,000 simulations of MLB games has identified the over on 7.5 runs as its preferred total for Rays vs. Orioles. The model projects 9.7 combined runs and says the over lands in 69% of its simulations. It also notes that the over has hit in two of the last three Tampa Bay games, and that McClanahan’s last two starts have gone over the total.
The model’s player projections point to several hitters with potential for productive nights. For Tampa Bay, Junior Caminero, Chandler Simpson, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz are projected to record at least 1.6 total bases or more. For Baltimore, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Pete Alonso are projected for more than 1.5 total bases.
Beyond the matchup itself, the Rays are aiming to extend their division lead, while the Orioles are trying to get back on track in the American League East race. With Tampa Bay in strong form and Baltimore seeking consistency, the series opener presents a key early-season test for both clubs. The game will be available on Fubo streaming.
