El Niño Likely to Bring Warmer, Drier Weather to Singapore in Second Half of the Year, Raising Haze Risk

Singapore is expected to experience El Nino conditions between June and July 2026, according to the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), with warmer and drier weather likely in the second half of the year and an increased risk of transboundary haze. MSS said on Friday, May 29, 2026, that there is more than an 80 per cent chance of an El Nino event developing in 2026, supported by signs including warmer sub-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.

The agency said El Nino typically has the greatest effect on Singapore’s rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season from June to September, when dry conditions become more likely. The climate pattern is known for unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and can disrupt weather patterns around the world, often bringing hotter and drier conditions to Southeast Asia. El Nino usually occurs every three to five years and can last up to a year.

MSS said the expected El Nino influence could extend from June to October, with the most significant impact likely during the southwest monsoon months. The service noted that the most recent El Nino event took place between 2023 and early 2024, before the region shifted to La Nina conditions. La Nina contributed to wetter-than-usual weather across the region through much of 2024 and into early 2026.

The agency pointed to past examples to show the potential effect on local weather. During the strong El Nino event in 2015, Singapore’s total rainfall from June to September was about 35 per cent below the long-term average. El Nino is also often linked with higher temperatures. In 2016, when the previous event weakened, average temperatures from March to May reached 29.2°C, which was 1°C above the long-term average for that period and made it Singapore’s second warmest March-to-May period on record.

The latest forecast suggests that Singapore could face a hotter and drier stretch in the coming months, especially as the Southwest Monsoon begins. Such conditions may raise the likelihood of haze, which can affect visibility and air quality across Singapore and neighboring parts of Southeast Asia. MSS’s advisory comes as regional weather patterns continue to shift from the wetter La Nina phase toward a potentially more climate-sensitive second half of the year.

El Nino is closely watched in Singapore because of its influence on rainfall, temperature and regional air quality. A stronger event can reduce rainfall, increase heat stress and contribute to dry conditions that worsen haze risks.