The political climate in Chad is facing renewed scrutiny after the country’s Supreme Court upheld a 20-year prison sentence for former Prime Minister Succès Masra and as eight other opposition figures remain jailed following their arrests in late April. Masra, the main challenger to President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, was convicted in August on charges of incitement to hatred and complicity in murder in a case criticized by Human Rights Watch as politically motivated.
The court’s decision has intensified concerns among observers who say Chad is undergoing a sharp democratic decline. Former Prime Minister and opposition leader Albert Pahimi Padacké said the country is experiencing a clear erosion of democratic space, with authorities appearing increasingly hostile to dissent. He argued that a growing number of opposition voices are being silenced through arrests and legal measures.
President Déby has ruled Chad since 2021, when he took power at the head of a military transition after the death of his father, Idriss Déby Itno, who led the country for three decades. The elder Déby had brought multiparty politics back into the system and was known for accommodating opposition figures, even while maintaining tight control over power. By contrast, critics say the current leadership is less tolerant of criticism.
In early May, eight opposition party leaders were sentenced to eight years in prison for allegedly plotting an insurrection. They had been organizing a protest banned by the authorities. Two of them were later granted provisional release on health grounds on May 18. The men belonged to the Groupe de concertation des acteurs politiques, or GCAP, the main opposition coalition, which Chad’s Supreme Court dissolved on April 24.
The United Nations also voiced concern, calling on the Chadian government to respect freedoms of expression, association and peaceful assembly. In the capital, N’Djamena, some residents say political debate has become muted since the arrests of GCAP leaders. While those figures were outspoken, observers say Masra was by far the most influential opposition personality, capable of drawing large crowds and mobilizing support.
Masra, an economist and popular opposition figure aged 42, was forced into exile in Cameroon in late 2022 after a violently suppressed protest that left many people dead, though no official toll was released. He returned to Chad a year later under an agreement with the government in Kinshasa and was appointed prime minister shortly afterward. Five months later, in the May 2024 presidential election, he finished second with nearly 20 percent of the vote, while Déby won about 60 percent in a contest widely criticized by parts of the opposition.
Analysts say the combination of Masra’s imprisonment, the dissolution of the GCAP, and the arrest of other opposition leaders signals a deep weakening of political pluralism in Chad. Some fear the government now sees dissent itself as a threat to stability. A constitutional revision adopted in October further extended presidential power by introducing a seven-year renewable term with no limit, raising additional concerns about the country’s democratic future.
For many observers, the central question is what remains of Chad’s democratic project, as the political space narrows and the ruling camp dominates public life.
