With Jannik Sinner eliminated from the French Open and Carlos Alcaraz already withdrawn before the tournament began, the men’s singles draw has suddenly opened up, giving nearly every remaining contender a realistic shot at the title. Sinner, the top-ranked Italian, was forced out after struggling physically in a five-set loss to Juan Manuel Cerundolo on Thursday, ending one of the tournament’s biggest storylines and ensuring that a player outside the Sinner-Alcaraz duo will lift a Grand Slam trophy for the first time since Novak Djokovic won the 2023 U.S. Open. Djokovic now headlines Friday’s action with a major third-round clash against Joao Fonseca, while the women’s side features matches involving Iga Swiatek and Elina Svitolina as the competition moves into Day 6 at Roland Garros.
Among the recommended plays, the matchup between Andrey Rublev and Nuno Borges shapes up as a long battle rather than a one-sided contest, making the over 36.5 games a strong angle. Rublev enters with a 4-0 head-to-head advantage, but that record is misleading because his early wins came on hard courts, while their first meeting on clay in Monte Carlo last month went to three sets. Borges has also shown strong form in Paris, beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Miomir Kecmanovic convincingly in the opening rounds. Rublev, meanwhile, has already been pushed twice, including a marathon opener against Ignacio Buse that lasted 43 games. With both players capable of holding serve and extending rallies, this match could easily require four or even five sets to resolve.
The same logic applies to Thiago Agustin Tirante versus Pablo Carreno Busta, where the over 36.5 games also stands out. Tirante is the favorite, but this is uncharted territory for him, as he is reaching the third round of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career. That kind of breakthrough often brings nerves and uneven play, especially against an opponent with far more experience on the big stage. Carreno Busta is a two-time French Open quarterfinalist and a two-time U.S. Open semifinalist, and he has already shown strong form in this tournament by dismantling Jiri Lehecka in straight sets. The Argentine is capable of competing well, but the combination of stage pressure and Carreno Busta’s pedigree points to a hard-fought match rather than a quick finish.
In the women’s draw, Yulia Starodubtseva is positioned to keep rolling after one of the tournament’s biggest surprises. Her upset of Elena Rybakina on Wednesday ranked as the second-largest shock of the event and reinforced what has been a strong spring for the Ukrainian, who was runner-up in Charleston and reached the semifinals of a lower-level Paris event. Her opponent, Xiyu Wang, has also been winning matches, but mostly against weaker opposition. Wang advanced in round two when Hailey Baptiste retired, and her ranking of No. 148 reflects the gap in top-level consistency between the two players. With confidence high after beating Rybakina, Starodubtseva looks well placed to continue her run at Roland Garros.
