President Donald Trump’s political standing with white working-class voters is weakening at a critical moment, according to polling reviewed by The New York Times. In 2018, these voters still largely trusted Trump on the economy even as Republicans lost the House in the midterms. Today, that support has eroded sharply, with recent surveys showing more white voters without college degrees disapproving of his economic performance than approving of it. The shift could prove decisive in the 2026 midterm elections, where the economy is expected to be one of the central issues.
Polls cited in the report show Trump’s approval on the economy among white non-college voters has fallen from strong positive margins in his first term to negative territory in several major surveys. Fox News found just 33 percent approval, CBS News 39 percent, NPR/PBS/Marist 40 percent, CNN 43 percent, and The New York Times/Siena College 47 percent. On inflation and the cost of living, the numbers are even weaker, suggesting that rising prices for gas, groceries and utilities are undercutting one of Trump’s core political strengths.
Trump’s advisers are trying to repair the damage. The Treasury Department recently promoted the economic benefits of the tax cuts enacted last year, and MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, issued its first statement since the 2024 election to highlight how those cuts helped working- and middle-class Americans. Republican strategists warn that if blue-collar voters stay home or turn away, the party could lose both chambers of Congress.
Democrats see an opening, especially in places that were not considered competitive in recent cycles. They are working to expand the map into more rural and white working-class states such as Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Maine, where they believe frustration over the economy could weaken Republican margins. At the same time, Democratic strategists acknowledge that the party still has a poor brand with many of these voters and may not win them outright.
The change appears to be driven by persistent inflation, high gas prices, and concern that Trump is focusing too much on foreign policy while neglecting household costs. Voters interviewed for the article said they feel squeezed and disappointed. Some former Trump supporters who backed him in 2024 now say they are considering voting for third-party candidates or skipping Trump altogether in 2026.
The political stakes are large. Trump won about two-thirds of white blue-collar voters in 2024, a share similar to his 2016 performance. But unlike 2018, when his economic approval remained high among this group, his current weakness on bread-and-butter issues could reshape the midterm battlefield. Republican and Democratic strategists alike agree that keeping or losing the white working-class vote may determine whether Republicans can hold the House and Senate next year.
