Canada and much of the world are expected to face wide-ranging effects from an impending super El Niño, with meteorologists warning it could help make 2026 one of the hottest years on record. Environment and Climate Change Canada has forecast that 2026 will likely rank among the warmest years ever measured, while Global News chief meteorologist Anthony Farnell said the planet is already unusually warm because of both climate change and the super El Niño pattern.
An El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in a section of the tropical Pacific rise at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average. A super El Niño is more intense, with temperatures more than two degrees above normal. These events typically happen every two to seven years and can last 12 to 18 months. Experts say the coming event is likely to affect regions from Peru and Ecuador to East Africa, Central Asia, southern North America, Australia, Indonesia and parts of South America.
One of the biggest concerns is food production. Farnell said Canada depends heavily on imports from regions vulnerable to drought, heat and other climate disruptions, including coffee, chocolate, oranges and many other products. Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with ECCC, warned that agricultural production in parts of India and Southeast Asia could also suffer, which may affect commodity prices and create food insecurity in badly hit areas. For Canadian consumers, that could mean higher grocery bills if key crops are damaged.
The weather pattern can also change precipitation in Canada. El Niño winters are often warmer, meaning more rain and less snow. That raises the risk of localized flooding when heavy rainfall events occur. Kent Moore, a physics professor at the University of Toronto, said warmer conditions can hold more moisture, which increases the energy available for major rainstorms. In the United States, California is considered especially vulnerable because it relies on snowpack to supply water later in the year. A depleted snowpack can worsen drought, while some coastal and mountain regions could face flooding, heavy snow or avalanche risks.
Across western Canada, Farnell said British Columbia, Alberta and the Prairies could turn much drier and warmer than normal, while Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes may see more uncertainty, with conditions swinging toward either flooding or dryness. He also warned that wildfire risk could rise if western regions dry out. Smoke from forest fires can spread far beyond the fire zone and affect air quality across the country. Health Canada says wildfire smoke increases the risk of premature death and respiratory and cardiovascular problems, especially for people with asthma, COPD and seniors.
The impact may extend to marine ecosystems as well. Farnell said rising ocean temperatures can damage coral reefs, especially when warming is sudden and severe. El Niño can also reduce the upwelling of nutrients from deeper water, stressing marine life and contributing to coral decline in the Pacific and elsewhere. In Canada, Statistics Canada notes that cold-water coral and sea sponge ecosystems cover a large area of the ocean floor and are fragile, with fishing, oil extraction and climate change all threatening their survival.
