The Weather Network says Canada is heading into a summer of contrasts, with western regions expected to be warmer and drier than normal while central and eastern areas are more likely to see a mixed pattern of heat, showers and thunderstorms. Senior meteorologist Doug Gillham said the country’s spring turbulence may be a sign of what is ahead, as shifting global weather patterns make it harder for prolonged hot, dry conditions to settle over much of the country.
The biggest concern in the forecast is Western Canada, where the combination of heat and low precipitation could increase the risk of drought, wildfire and smoke. British Columbia’s Interior is singled out as especially vulnerable because of existing dry conditions. Gillham said the ingredients are in place for a concerning wildfire season, although the summer heat may not be as relentless as in some recent years and could fade more quickly heading into September.
Across the Prairies, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to be strongest in Alberta and western Saskatchewan, with conditions becoming less consistently hot farther east. The forecast suggests much of the region will be drier than normal, particularly in the first half of the summer, which could be important for agriculture because June is usually the wettest month and helps establish early-season moisture. Gillham said rainfall remains difficult to predict, but the transition to El Nino could shift the Pacific storm track south and reduce rain chances in some southern Prairie areas.
In Ontario, a warm start to the season may reach northern parts of the province, but the province as a whole is expected to trend cooler than normal in July and August. That does not mean summer will disappear, Gillham said, but persistent hot spells may be less common than in recent years. Southern and eastern Ontario are forecast to see more frequent showers and thunderstorms, which should keep conditions wetter than normal.
Quebec is expected to experience a similar pattern, with periodic heat interrupted by more comfortable stretches and regular storm chances, especially in western and southern areas. Atlantic Canada is forecast to stay closer to seasonal temperatures overall, though showers and thunderstorms are likely to be more frequent than usual. The Maritimes are expected to receive above-normal precipitation, while Newfoundland and Labrador should stay near normal. Gillham said the wetter pattern should reduce concerns about drought, wildfire and poor air quality in the east.
In northern Canada, the warmest conditions are expected in Yukon and western Northwest Territories, where wildfire risk may also rise. Farther east, temperatures are forecast to be closer to normal, with parts of Nunavut, including Iqaluit, possibly leaning cooler than average.
The outlook comes as Canada’s definition of “normal” summer weather continues to shift. Average summer temperatures are now about 2.1 degrees warmer than they were in the mid-20th century, reflecting long-term climate change from fossil fuel emissions. The forecast uses the more recent 1991-2020 climate baseline for comparison.
