Two New Election Polls Show Lula vs. Flávio Race Tightens After ‘Dark Horse’ Case

Two new presidential polls in Brazil, from the Meio/Ideia institute and PoderData, are set to measure voter sentiment in a potential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and pre-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. The surveys come after the recent exposure of Flávio Bolsonaro’s alleged involvement with Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, in a controversy tied to funding for “Dark Horse,” a biographical film about former president Jair Bolsonaro.

A report by The Intercept Brasil published audio recordings in which the senator appears to discuss a payment to help finance the project. According to the report, Vorcaro agreed to invest R$134 million in the film. The revelations have placed Flávio Bolsonaro under scrutiny and made the issue a central topic in at least one of the upcoming polls.

The Meio/Ideia poll, scheduled for release on Thursday, May 28, will interview 1,500 people across Brazil. It has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. Unlike a standard vote-intention survey, it will directly ask respondents about the “Dark Horse” case and whether the episode involving Vorcaro affects their willingness to support Flávio Bolsonaro. The questionnaire also includes Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, as a potential presidential candidate.

Its first-round section tests several names, including Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Fernando Haddad, Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, Aécio Neves, Tereza Cristina, Joaquim Barbosa, Augusto Cury, Cabo Daciolo, and other lower-profile candidates. The second-round section simulates direct matchups between Lula and several opponents, including Flávio Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro, Zema, Caiado, Aécio Neves, Tereza Cristina, Joaquim Barbosa, and Renan Santos. The survey also asks respondents to evaluate Lula’s government across the economy, security, health, and education, and whether they approve or disapprove of his administration.

The poll further explores public reactions to the Flávio-Vorcaro controversy by asking whether the case is serious enough to require deeper investigation by federal police and prosecutors, whether the media is exaggerating the scandal for political reasons, or whether respondents believe Flávio Bolsonaro’s explanation that it involved only private sponsorship. It also asks about the mood of voters ahead of the election, the possible influence of the World Cup on public attention, and whether a fully female presidential ticket made up of Michelle Bolsonaro and Tereza Cristina could attract support.

PoderData, due out on Friday, May 29, will survey 2,400 people and focus strictly on voting intention in first- and second-round scenarios, without mentioning the recent scandal. With a margin of error of 2 percentage points and a 95% confidence level, it will test Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro and against other possible rivals, including Augusto Cury, Joaquim Barbosa, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado. It will also ask respondents how they view Lula and Flávio individually, and measure approval of Lula’s personal performance and his government.