The Phillies enter Tuesday night’s game against the Padres in San Diego with strong momentum from the top of their rotation, but also with a lingering concern in Aaron Nola’s early-season form. Since Zack Wheeler returned on April 25, Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo have combined for a 10-1 record in 17 starts with a 1.46 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, holding opponents to a .192 batting average and a .243 on-base percentage. Rookie right-hander Andrew Painter has also begun to settle in, posting a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three starts after adjusting his pitch mix and usage.
Still, Nola has been the one constant struggle during the Phillies’ 18-8 run under interim manager Don Mattingly. Through his first 10 starts, the longtime Phillies right-hander owns a 6.01 ERA and has allowed 61 hits in 50 2/3 innings. He has only three quality starts, all against teams with losing records. The Padres may be better positioned in the standings than those clubs, but their offense has been inconsistent, entering the matchup with one of the weakest OPS marks in baseball.
For Nola, the biggest issue has been his four-seam fastball. Opponents are batting .417 against it with a .958 slugging percentage, and left-handed hitters have done especially serious damage. The Padres will likely present a favorable matchup in one respect, as they have only two left-handed hitters in the lineup, which gives Nola a chance to lean on other pitches more heavily.
His knuckle curve has been his most effective weapon this season. Hitters from both sides have had trouble with it, and Nola showed better feel for the pitch in his last outing, throwing it for a strike on 85 percent of first-pitch attempts. That sort of early-count success could help him pitch backward and create more opportunities to use his changeup as a putaway pitch later in counts.
If Nola moves away from the four-seamer, he will need to be selective with his sinker and curve combination. The Padres have handled slower four-seamers well this season, but they have been less effective against sinkers and two-seamers. Working the sinker inside to right-handed hitters and pairing it with the knuckle curve could help him generate softer contact, something he has struggled to do this year.
The numbers also show that Nola performs much better when he gets ahead. When he starts an at-bat 0-1, opponents have a .314 on-base percentage against him. When he falls behind 1-0, that figure rises sharply to .388 with a .903 OPS. His first pitch has also been vulnerable, with opponents hitting .440 on balls in play against it this season.
Mattingly is also making lineup changes. Kyle Schwarber will lead off, Trea Turner will bat second, and Edmundo Sosa will play left field while Brandon Marsh moves to right. Schwarber has been one of the Phillies’ hottest hitters, while Turner is struggling badly over his last seven games. The move reflects the club’s effort to maximize production at the top of the order while the pitching staff continues to carry the team.
