Eastern Iowa faces a two-day stretch of active and potentially dangerous weather as strong to severe storms are expected on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the latest forecast from KCRG in Cedar Rapids. Both days have been designated First Alert Days because of the threat for damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. The highest tornado risk is expected with isolated storms, while wind damage becomes more likely if storms organize into lines.
On Wednesday, the first round of storms may develop during the morning hours, roughly between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. These storms could form in a scattered pattern but may become more organized within a few hours. If that happens, some storms could quickly turn severe, bringing large hail and damaging winds. A second, potentially more widespread round is expected later in the afternoon and evening as a frontal boundary moves into the area. Storm development is likely ahead of the front, especially after 3 p.m. to 4 p.m., and forecasters say the ingredients in place could allow storms to become severe fairly rapidly. Activity should gradually move out by late evening, leading to calmer conditions overnight.
Thursday brings another severe weather threat as a new disturbance approaches the region with even more energy and wind shear to support storm development. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of eastern Iowa in an enhanced risk area for Thursday, with the rest under a slight risk. Forecasters are watching two periods again. The first is Thursday morning, when a cluster or line of storms is expected to move into the area after forming overnight in Nebraska and western Iowa. Damaging winds are the main concern, though hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
The forecast becomes more uncertain later Thursday because the outcome depends on how much energy is used up by the morning storms. If the atmosphere has enough recovery time, additional storms could redevelop from late morning into the evening. Those storms would form in an environment favorable for severe weather, keeping all hazards possible.
In addition to the severe storm threat, heavy rainfall could become an issue over the next few days. Forecasters say eastern Iowa could receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts. That could lead to isolated flash flooding in some locations, though river flooding is not expected because river levels are currently low.
Residents are being urged to stay weather-aware and monitor updates throughout Wednesday and Thursday through KCRG.com, KCRG-TV9 and the KCRG First Alert Weather app. The forecast calls for multiple rounds of storms, changing timing and uncertain impacts, making close attention to warnings especially important over the next 48 hours.
