A new Paraná Pesquisas survey released on Thursday, June 4, shows the first Rio de Janeiro Senate polling after Cláudio Castro withdrew from the race, and it gives the PL fresh concerns as it searches for a replacement candidate. In both tested scenarios, left-wing lawmaker Benedita da Silva of the PT leads the field by a comfortable margin, while the two names most often mentioned as possible PL substitutes, federal deputy Carlos Jordy and senator Carlos Portinho, are running at similar and relatively low levels of support.
The poll tested two different Senate lineups. In the first scenario, which included Jordy and former Rio mayor Marcelo Crivella, Benedita da Silva led with 34.2% of the vote. Crivella followed with 26%, then Márcio Canella of União with 21.3%, Pedro Paulo of the PSD with 20.7%, and PSOL’s Monica Benicio with 11%. Jordy registered 10.4%, while Mauro Campos of Novo had 9.1% and Helio Secco of Missão 6%. The share of undecided voters stood at 6.8%, and 14.6% said they would vote blank, null or for no one.
In the second scenario, which replaced Crivella with former Belford Roxo mayor Waguinho, Benedita da Silva again came first, this time with 35.9%. Márcio Canella placed second with 23.6%, followed by Pedro Paulo at 22.8% and Monica Benicio at 12.2%. Mauro Campos received 10.7%, Waguinho 10.2%, and Portinho 8.9%, with Helio Secco at 6.5%. In this version, 7.4% were undecided and 16.4% chose blank, null or no candidate.
Because the poll’s margin of error is 2.4 percentage points in either direction, Jordy and Portinho are effectively tied and remain well behind the frontrunners. That comparison is especially important for the PL, which is evaluating whether to keep testing Jordy, Portinho or the party’s leader in the Chamber, Sóstenes Cavalcante, as it looks to fill the vacancy left by Castro’s exit.
The new numbers also indicate continuity with the previous round of polling. In April, Castro had been measuring 29.9%, and his departure appears to have reshuffled the race without producing a clear PL alternative so far. The survey interviewed 1,680 voters across Rio de Janeiro between June 1 and June 3 and was registered with the Electoral Court under protocol RJ-05645/2026.
