UK Weather: Rain Returns Before Predicted Heatwave

Long-range weather forecasts suggest the UK could face a warmer-than-average summer, raising the chance of heatwaves later in the season even though the start of summer has been cooler and wetter. The Met Office published its three-month summer outlook on 1 June, the first day of meteorological summer, and said there was a higher-than-normal chance of hotter weather during the month. For the full summer period through the end of August, it warned of an increased likelihood of heatwaves and heat-related impacts.

The outlook follows an exceptionally hot late spring, when temperature records were broken across the UK. A new all-time May high of 35.1C was recorded at Kew Gardens in London, surpassing the previous May record of 32.8C set in 1944. The warmth was significant enough to prompt the first yellow and amber heat health alerts of the year.

Further seasonal forecasts point in the same direction. Long-range outlooks from the Met Office and MeteoGroup, which provides BBC Weather data, both indicate an elevated risk of heatwaves over the coming summer months. MeteoGroup expects temperatures to remain above average through June, July and August, with the possibility of several notable spikes in heat and periods of intense warmth affecting the UK and parts of Europe.

The Met Office’s assessment broadly matches that view, saying warmer-than-average conditions are more likely this summer. It also notes that the chance of a hotter-than-average season is now about twice what it was during the 1991–2020 climate reference period, a shift it links to the effects of a warming climate.

While long-range forecasts cannot predict the timing or severity of individual hot spells, the overall signal suggests that the UK may need to prepare for further extreme heat after an unsettled start to the season. The combination of rising temperatures, recent record-breaking conditions and increased heatwave risk raises the prospect of more disruptive weather before summer ends.