Juan Manuel Cerúndolo vs. Matteo Berrettini Prediction, Odds for French Open Round 4

Juan Manuel Cerundolo’s improbable run at the French Open continues into the fourth round after he stunned top seed Jannik Sinner in the second round and then outlasted Martin Landaluce in five sets in the third round. The 24-year-old Argentine has already produced one of the biggest shocks of the tournament, and now he will try to extend his breakthrough campaign when he meets 30-year-old Matteo Berrettini on Monday morning at Roland Garros.

Berrettini has been tested as well. He reached the fourth round by defeating No. 22 Arthur Rinderknech and then surviving a grueling five-set battle against Francisco Comesana in the third round. The Italian has prior Grand Slam success on his résumé, including a French Open quarterfinal appearance in 2021 and a U.S. Open quarterfinal run in 2022, but his results at major tournaments have been more modest in recent seasons. A return to the quarterfinals in Paris would mark a significant step back toward his best form.

Cerundolo has never before advanced this far in a Grand Slam, making this matchup a new challenge for him. His win over Sinner was especially remarkable because the world No. 1 entered as a massive favorite, but Cerundolo capitalized as Sinner struggled with cramping during the match. He has now played back-to-back long, physical matches, and endurance could become a major factor as the tournament enters its second week.

The betting market favors Berrettini, who is listed at -164 on the moneyline, while Cerundolo is at +134. The total is set at 38.5 games, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -125. The matchup is notable because both players have already logged heavy court time in the opening three rounds, raising expectations for another lengthy contest.

Cerundolo’s path has been especially demanding. He opened with a straight-sets win, but still spent 34 games on court in that match. Since then, he has gone deep into two five-setters and played 43 and 62 games in his last two rounds. Berrettini has also been stretched, playing 40, 30, and 61 games through his first three matches, with multiple sets decided by tiebreakers. That pattern suggests the potential for another long match, and possibly one that reaches four or more sets.

While Berrettini brings more experience at this stage of a Grand Slam and has shown flashes of his former top-level ability, Cerundolo’s confidence and momentum from his upset-filled run make him dangerous. Still, the combination of both players’ recent workload and the frequency of long sets points toward a match that could go well beyond a straightforward result.

The lean in this matchup is the over 38.5 games, given the extended battles both players have already survived at Roland Garros.