Casey Mize’s Breakout Is Finally Paying Off for the Tigers

Casey Mize’s career has been defined by both promise and setbacks, but his progress since returning to the mound has pointed toward a potential breakthrough. After his first full season in the major-league rotation in 2021, Mize logged 150.1 innings over 30 starts and finished with a 3.71 ERA. While his strikeout rate remained modest at 7.1 K/9, he contributed positive value with 1.2 fWAR. The biggest improvement came in his command, as he lowered his walks per nine innings from 4.13 in 2020 to 2.45 in 2021. He also generated weaker contact, posting a career-low 40% opponents’ hard-hit rate and allowing barrels on just 10% of batted balls.

Those gains were accompanied by a noticeable shift in pitch selection. Mize reduced his splitter usage, nearly abandoned his sinker, and leaned much more heavily on his four-seam fastball. The approach appeared to work, giving him more consistent results and helping him look like a more complete starter.

However, the increase in workload came at a cost. After throwing only 10 innings in 2022, Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and missed the rest of that season as well as the entire 2023 campaign. He did not return to game action until 2024, when he made 22 appearances and 20 starts, totaling 102.1 innings with a 4.49 ERA. Although it was encouraging to see him back, his comeback was interrupted by more physical issues. He dealt with a right adductor strain during spring training and later missed time after being placed on the 60-day injured list in July with a left hamstring strain, sidelining him until late August.

In 2025, Mize showed another step forward and earned his first All-Star selection as an injury replacement for Boston’s Garrett Crochet. Even with the unusual path to the roster, the recognition reflected a strong season. His walk rate dropped to 5.7%, continuing the command gains he had built over the previous few years. He also set a new career low in contact rate at 78.1% while pitching 149 innings and recording a 3.87 ERA. For much of the year, he looked like the version of himself the Tigers had long hoped to see: efficient, composed, and capable of handling a top-of-the-rotation role.

Still, injuries remained part of the story, interrupting the momentum whenever he seemed ready to take the next step. That tension between progress and physical setbacks has shaped Mize’s career, making his latest stretch both encouraging and uncertain. With signs of improved command, better contact management, and stronger results, the question heading into 2026 is whether he can finally sustain the upward trend and turn his talent into lasting success.