The U.S. Open is widely regarded as golf’s hardest test, and this year’s edition at Shinnecock Hills is expected to reward precision, patience and ball-striking more than pure power. The course’s narrow margins, uneven lies, subtle elevation changes and fast, undulating greens are expected to punish misses, while early rain and steady wind could make conditions even more demanding throughout the week. With weather in the forecast and rough scoring conditions expected, driving accuracy and recent form are projected to matter more than reputation alone.
A ranking of all 156 players in the field places Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy at the top, reflecting their status as the game’s elite. Scheffler is viewed as the safest bet overall, while McIlroy’s iron play appears to be trending upward and Rahm’s path to victory may depend on finding more fairways. Defending champion J.J. Spaun is also high on the list after showing signs of strong form entering the title defense. Other top contenders include Russell Henley, Aaron Rai, Patrick Cantlay, Kristoffer Reitan, Patrick Reed and Justin Rose. Reitan has been one of the best approach players in recent weeks, while Rose’s past success at the venue adds to his appeal despite concerns about a cold putter.
The next tier features Tommy Fleetwood, Wyndham Clark, Cameron Young, Justin Thomas, Ludvig Aberg, Alex Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Burns. Clark is coming off an impressive stretch that includes a win at the Byron Nelson and a strong run at Memorial and in Canada, though his putting has carried much of the load. Young’s recent dip is tied to a slowing putter, while Alex Fitzpatrick is seen as the stronger bet between the Fitzpatrick brothers because of his better iron play and recent top-10s in elite events. Burns has also been trending well since mid-March.
The middle of the rankings includes names such as Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee, Viktor Hovland, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman and Sungjae Im. Schauffele is respected for his major consistency, but his recent approach numbers raise questions at this course. Koepka remains dangerous but carries injury concerns. Morikawa’s ball-striking upside remains elite, though his putting has been a long-standing issue. DeChambeau’s recent major struggles and inconsistent short game have pushed him down the board, while Spieth and Hovland are viewed as capable but not without flaws.
Several lesser-known or emerging players also drew attention. Andrew Novak, Ryan Gerard, Jackson Koivun, Preston Stout, Ben James, Johnny Keefer, Michael Brennan, Jackson Suber, Sudarshan Yellamaraju and others are highlighted as possible surprises or strong cut-making candidates. Stout and James are especially noted for their college pedigree and ball-striking ability, while Koivun’s major debut carries high expectations. Some veterans, including Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day and Padraig Harrington, were placed lower due to recent inconsistency.
Overall, the ranking emphasizes current form, recent U.S. Open history and fit for a demanding course setup that is likely to expose weaknesses.
