President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to a prolonged low in his second term, with the New York Times’ national polling average showing 38% approval and 58% disapproval. He has not averaged above 40% approval since late April, marking one of the weakest stretches of his presidency and raising questions about whether he can recover as he has after previous polling downturns.
The decline is significant because it appears to show Trump’s traditional political “floor” weakening. In past periods of poor polling, Trump was often protected by the loyalty of his MAGA base, which limited how far his numbers could drop. This time, however, the slump suggests that support is eroding across parts of the coalition that helped return him to office.
Reports indicate that more white voters without college degrees are disapproving of Trump’s performance, while some young voters and nonwhite voters who leaned right in the 2024 election have shifted back toward Democrats. Independent voters have also drifted downward in their support since the start of his term. For Republicans, this creates a serious political problem because losses among core and swing groups could complicate efforts to defend congressional seats and state-level races in November.
Political scientists say the current environment makes dramatic changes in approval ratings less common than in the past. With polarization so strong, presidential approval is often driven more by party identity than by actual performance in office. As a result, support levels tend to move within narrower bands, with partisans sticking to their side and fewer voters changing their minds based on day-to-day developments.
That broader trend also affects another familiar question in polling: whether the country is moving in the right or wrong direction. In today’s polarized political climate, that measure often reflects attitudes toward the president rather than a neutral assessment of national conditions. People who support the president are more likely to say the country is on the right track, while opponents are more likely to say it is heading in the wrong direction.
Trump’s current numbers therefore carry significance beyond a routine dip. They suggest not just a temporary reaction to a single issue, but possible strain in the alliance of voters that has powered his political rise. If the discontent continues, it could weaken both his governing position and the Republican Party’s electoral prospects. At the same time, the article notes that Trump has previously recovered from damaging polls, so it remains unclear whether this downturn represents a temporary setback or a more lasting erosion of his base.
