Ryan Wohl’s best bet for this week’s UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas is Fares Ziam over Tom Nolan in a lightweight matchup between two rising prospects. Ziam enters the fight with an 18-4 record and 11 finishes, riding a six-fight winning streak that has established him as one of the division’s more reliable young contenders. Nolan, 26, brings a 10-1 record and a four-fight winning streak, making this a meaningful test of momentum for both fighters.
Ziam’s UFC run began unevenly at 2-2, but he has since turned a corner with six straight victories. His recent form has included two knockout wins in his last three outings. In his previous bout, Ziam earned a second-round knockout of Nazim Sadykhov, handing Sadykhov his first loss after a 12-fight unbeaten run. That performance added to the impression that Ziam is improving at the right time and handling tougher opposition with confidence.
Nolan, who comes into the fight from Australia, is also trending upward. He is coming off the first submission win of his career, a victory over Charlie Campbell in September 2025. While Nolan is still relatively early in his UFC journey, his four-fight run has helped him build credibility as a dangerous, well-rounded prospect with upside in a competitive lightweight field.
Physically, the matchup is close. Nolan holds a two-inch height advantage at 6-foot-3 compared to Ziam’s 6-foot-1 frame. Ziam, however, has a two-inch edge in reach, measuring 75 inches to Nolan’s 73. Those measurements could matter in a fight where distance striking and timing are likely to play a major role.
Statistically, Nolan has a slight edge in striking volume, averaging about three more significant strikes per minute than Ziam. Ziam, though, is more active in grappling, landing nearly one more takedown per 15 minutes. That difference suggests Ziam may have more paths to controlling the fight, especially if he can mix levels and avoid letting Nolan settle into a rhythm on the feet.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Ziam is listed as a -298 favorite, while Nolan sits at +240 as the underdog. The fight is priced at -145 to not go the distance and +110 to reach the full 15 minutes. Even with Ziam’s 11 career finishes, six of his last eight wins have come by decision, which points to a fighter capable of winning rounds even when he is not producing a stoppage.
Wohl’s case for Ziam rests on experience, defensive sharpness, and balance across striking and wrestling. Against a talented but less proven Nolan, those factors make Ziam the preferred pick in this UFC Fight Night lightweight matchup.
