Brumbies and Reds must make Super Rugby Pacific history in New Zealand to keep finals hopes alive

Australian rugby faces a defining weekend in Super Rugby Pacific, with the Brumbies and Reds needing to break a long-standing New Zealand playoff curse to keep their seasons alive. No Australian team has ever won a final in New Zealand since the professional era began in 1996, and Australian franchises now carry a combined 0-21 record in knockout matches across the Tasman. The Brumbies face the top-ranked Hurricanes in Wellington on Friday night, while the Reds take on the second-placed Chiefs in Hamilton on Saturday.

The Brumbies’ path to the finals became much harder after a 21-19 loss to Moana Pasifika in Canberra last weekend. That defeat dropped them from a possible top-three finish and a home final to sixth place and a sudden-death trip to New Zealand. The result exposed recurring problems, including a poor home record and a misfiring line-out. Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham has urged his players to move on quickly, but the lessons are clear: they must be far more physical and accurate if they are to challenge the Hurricanes, who have not lost at home this season.

The Brumbies did show they can compete in New Zealand, winning two of their three matches there during the regular season, including a big victory over the Crusaders. But they were also heavily beaten by the Hurricanes earlier in the year, and another loss would end their campaign. Fullback Tom Wright admitted the team’s physicality was not good enough against Moana Pasifika, and that same issue could decide the knockout match in Wellington. If the Brumbies cannot win the collisions and clean up their set-piece, they are unlikely to survive.

The Reds also face a tough assignment against a New Zealand powerhouse. They lost to the Chiefs earlier in the season and have repeatedly fallen short in playoff matches across the Tasman, including defeats to the Chiefs in 2023 and 2024. Captain Fraser McReight has openly described their record in New Zealand finals as a “hoodoo.” Queensland enters the match after recent wins over Moana Pasifika and the Fijian Drua, but neither performance was complete over 80 minutes. Against a side as clinical as the Chiefs, any lapse in concentration could be fatal.

Injury has added to Queensland’s challenge. Centre Hunter Paisami and flanker Seru Uru are both unavailable, weakening the Reds’ midfield and line-out options. Filipo Daugunu is expected to fill in at inside centre, while Joe Brial offers extra line-out strength. Coach Les Kiss knows his side are underdogs and may be coaching for one more week only if the Reds fail to spring an upset.

Separately, the Wallabies suffered a setback when Waratahs scrum half Jake Gordon ruptured his Achilles tendon and was ruled out for the rest of the season. With Gordon injured and Nic White retired, Tate McDermott will carry much of the load at number nine, although several other options are emerging.

The weekend also highlighted the growing competition for young athletes in Australian sport, with former rugby junior Harry Kyle making his AFL debut for the Sydney Swans. His switch underscores the challenge rugby faces in retaining talent, especially against the AFL’s financial power and aggressive recruitment.