Toy Story 5 Targets $150 Million U.S. Opening, Set to Lead Franchise and 2026 Box Office Record

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 5 is tracking for a major opening, with early estimates pointing to about $150 million in its first weekend in North America. If that holds, the film would set a new franchise record, surpassing Toy Story 4, which opened to $120.9 million in 2019 before the pandemic. It would also become the biggest opening of 2026 so far, topping Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131.7 million three-day debut. The animated sequel is set to open on Pixar’s traditional June 19 release slot, a date that has often been favorable for the studio.

The projected start would also mark the strongest summer opening seen so far this year. Tracking suggests interest is broad, with particularly strong first-choice support among women and men under 25. Overall audience interest across all major demographic groups is running ahead of Toy Story 4 and slightly behind Super Mario Galaxy Movie. Disney is expecting a family-heavy turnout, with appeal spanning parents, grandparents, and children alike. Tickets for the film went on sale Tuesday, helping fuel early buzz around the release.

The Toy Story franchise is now 31 years old, and the fifth installment is not seen as overexposed despite its longevity. The series remains one of Pixar’s most recognizable and commercially reliable brands, and Disney would likely view any opening above Toy Story 4’s result as a strong performance. If Toy Story 5 reaches the current tracking level, it would be another sign that Pixar’s best-known properties still have significant box-office power.

The biggest domestic opening ever for an animated film remains Disney/Pixar’s Incredibles 2, which debuted to $182.6 million. That benchmark would still stand above the current Toy Story 5 projection, but a $150 million launch would place the film among the strongest animated openings in box-office history.

Also included in the latest tracking is A24’s The Death of Robin Hood, directed by Michael Sarnoski. The film is currently looking at a 3-day opening forecast of under $10 million.