Relaxing BPC Oversight Will Exact a High Cost on the Country

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has introduced a series of politically popular measures that, according to the text, have already cost more than 200 billion reais. These include income tax exemptions, a new debt renegotiation program, and subsidized credit lines for farmers, taxi drivers, and app-based drivers. The article argues that none of these initiatives has been subjected to proper public policy evaluation, and that the latest measure is especially problematic. Rather than tightening oversight of the Benefício de Prestação Continuada, or BPC, the government has weakened monitoring to avoid cutting irregular payments and is instead speeding up approvals to reduce the backlog of applications.

The BPC is a Brazilian social assistance program that provides a minimum wage to low-income elderly people and people with disabilities. The article says the number of beneficiaries rose from 5.1 million in 2022, the final year of Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, to 25% more since then. It acknowledges that the state has a duty to serve vulnerable people waiting for responses from the National Social Security Institute, but insists that such service requires careful scrutiny. According to the text, there are many signs of fraud and irregularities in the system, and a conservative estimate puts improper spending at 14 billion reais per year. The government itself reportedly cancels three out of every ten BPC grants it reviews.

Most of the growth in the past three years has come from disability-based benefits. To qualify, applicants must prove a physical, mental, intellectual, or sensory impairment, be enrolled in the CadÚnico registry, and have per capita family income at or below one quarter of the minimum wage. The article says judicial approvals have become a recurring problem, while failures or fraud in medical evaluations also contribute to improper grants. Another issue is that some recipients no longer meet the income requirement after being approved but remain in the program anyway.

The fiscal impact has been substantial. Adjusted for inflation, BPC spending grew 12.5% in 2023, 15% in 2024, and 9% in the previous year. Citing a report from the Independent Fiscal Institution, the text says the main driver of higher spending has been the growth in the number of beneficiaries, even though minimum-wage increases also played a role. The government ended 2025 with 127 billion reais spent on the BPC, equal to 1% of GDP, twice the share recorded in 2011. If current trends continue, spending could reach 1.4% of GDP by 2035.

Although Lula’s government says it remains committed to reviewing the BPC and aims to save 1.1 billion reais this year, the article claims that reviews of existing benefits are being pushed back until after January. Until the election, it says, attention will remain focused on new applications rather than on cleaning up already approved benefits.